The Election is Distracting Us From the Issues

If you look at any major American news website right now, the lead story (and in some cases nearly all the stories) will be about the 2016 election. This has been true for about a year, and we still have another 6 months or so until November. Initially it feels as if this election coverage is going somewhere useful–candidates choose to run on different issues, and that gets us talking about those issues and about the various policy proposals to deal with them. But as time goes on and the field narrows, the candidates stop throwing out new ideas and start going after each other in a prolonged trench war that is more about character attacks than it is about the issues. But this doesn’t bother readers–readers remain far happier to click on election-related content than on any other sort of content. Even reduced purely to soap opera, election politics beats nearly every other kind of politics. Media outlets have caught on to this–because you get more hits and clicks covering the election than you do covering anything else, the media is forced to supply you with an unending stream of political stories, many of which are repetitive and don’t contribute much of value to any sort of public debate, lest they lose market share to competitors.

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Why the Media Cannot Deal Effectively with Donald Trump

A lot of people are upset at the media for facilitating the rise of Donald Trump by giving him so much coverage and attention. This coverage legitimized him as a serious candidate and frequently gave him a free platform, allowing Trump to market himself to voters without having to buy many commercials. But we are wrong to point the finger at the media–the media is subject to certain market imperatives that made it impossible for the media to handle Trump in a way that would have been better, and this will continue to be the case going forward. Continue reading “Why the Media Cannot Deal Effectively with Donald Trump”

Donald Trump Gets Something Right: The US Can Avoid Defaults by Printing Money

Donald Trump is getting mocked on the internet for declaring that:

This is the United States government. First of all, you never have to default because you print the money. I hate to tell you. So there’s never a default.

Trump critics are crowing, accusing Trump of being ignorant of economics. There’s a lot of reason to think that Trump doesn’t know his economics (such as the outlandish tax plan he proposed). But this time Trump is right–the government really can avoid defaults by printing money. Here’s how.

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What the Arab Spring Teaches Us About Armed Rebellion

Horrible things have been happening to Aleppo, a UNESCO World Heritage site and Syria’s largest city. Large parts of the old city has been destroyed, though not for the first time–the city was sacked as recently as 1440 by Tamerlane, a vicious Mongol conqueror who is estimated to have killed 5% of the world’s people. All told, the Syrian Civil War has killed more than 270,000 people, creating more than 4 million refugees and displacing 7.6 million. These high losses have not resulted in any constructive political change in Syria–Bashar al-Assad’s faction remains the strongest in the country. The conflict has made no one better off aside from the Islamic State, which has used the chaos to carve out a slice of territory for itself:

Syria and Iraq 5 May 2016

The Syrian government is red, the Iraqi government is purple, the rebels are green, Islamic State is black, and the Kurds are orange. When the Syrian Civil War started, a lot of people in the west were excited by the possibility of overthrowing the Assad regime and creating a new democracy in the Middle East. Instead we have a bloody power vacuum filled in which the only winners are terrorist organizations. What’s interesting about this is that Syria is not an isolated case–the Arab Spring revolutions that turned violent all went so badly, while those that remained peaceful sometimes achieved meaningful results.

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Four Horses of the Apocalypse 2016 US Presidential Election Sim

A few people have asked me what would happen if Bernie Sanders ran as an independent or on a joint Green Party ticket with Jill Stein, or if the Republican establishment ran their own candidate against Donald Trump. Some people want to know what happens if both parties split and we get an extremely messy 4-way race. These questions are difficult to answer, but I’ve put together a very basic election simulation to try to give you a sense for what might happen.

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