Which 2020 Democrat is the Most Experienced?

by Benjamin Studebaker

Tonight I found myself looking over and old post–“Who is the Most Qualified Presidential Candidate Ever?“, from September 2016. It was shortly before the presidential election, and Americans were arguing about whether Hillary Clinton was the “most qualified” candidate in history, in the sense of “most experienced”. To answer that question, I devised a formula I thought was cute. So tonight I’ll score the 2020 Democratic nominees.

Here’s how it works:

I decided to count as “political experience” all experience in public office at the local, state, or federal levels. An office counts as “public” if it is part of one of the three branches of government (legislative, executive, and judicial). I only count civilian roles, not necessarily to devalue military experience (although some of our worst presidents were generals–e.g. Grant, Taylor) but because I believe military experience and political experience are fundamentally different things. Politicians cannot order other politicians around like subordinates, they have to work within a system of checks and balances and get willing cooperation. I also do not include things like being first lady or first gentleman, because that role has no legal power and therefore doesn’t meet my standard for what constitutes “public office”. Not all experience is worth the same amount. Being senator or secretary of state for one year is worth more than being a state legislator or local mayor for the same period of time. So I came up with six levels of experience:

  • Level 1: Most local offices, mayors for small cities (population under 100,000). Each year of Level 1 experience is weighted at 0.25, so if a candidate is county clerk for 4 years, that’s worth 1 experience point.
  • Level 2: Most state offices, especially time spent serving in a state legislature. Also mayors of mid-size cities (100,000 to 500,000). Each year of Level 2 experience is weighted at 0.5, so if a candidate is in the New York state legislature for 4 years, that’s worth 2 experience points.
  • Level 3: Low level federal offices, including serving in the House of Representatives or being an assistant secretary or ambassador. Also mayors of large cities (500,000+) or delegates to continental congresses or the constitutional convention. Each year of Level 3 experience is weighted at 0.75, so if a candidate is a member of the house for 4 years, that’s worth 3 experience points.
  • Level 4: Governors, senators, appellate courts, most secretaries (commerce, agriculture, interior, etc.) Each year of Level 4 experience is weighted at 1, so if a candidate is a senator for 4 years, that’s worth 4 points.
  • Level 5: Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense/War, Vice President, or Speaker of the House. Each year of Level 5 experience is weighted at 1.5, so if a candidate is secretary of state for 4 years, that’s worth 6 points.
  • Level 6: Years already spent serving as president. Each year of level 6 experience is weighted at 2, so if a candidate is president for 4 years, that’s worth 8 points.

Here are the bulk of the 2020 candidates, ranked by the weighted experience points (WXP) they would be expected to have on inauguration day:

  1. Joe Biden, 48 WXP
  2. Bernie Sanders, 28 WXP
  3. Jay Inslee, 21.25 WXP
  4. Amy Klobuchar, 15 WXP
  5. John Hickenlooper, 14 WXP
  6. Kirsten Gillibrand, 12.5 WXP
  7. Cory Booker, 12.5 WXP
  8. Elizabeth Warren, 10.25 WXP
  9. Kamala Harris, 8.75 WXP
  10. Donald Trump, 8 WXP
  11. Julian Castro, 7.75 WXP
  12. Tulsi Gabbard, 7.25 WXP
  13. Robert O’Rourke, 6 WXP
  14. Pete Buttigieg, 4.5 WXP
  15. Andrew Yang, 0 WXP

Here’s how that looks on a chart:

But don’t get too excited–as I pointed out in 2016, political experience doesn’t seem to track the ratings historians give presidents at all:

presidential-candidate-weighted-vs-historian

Nor does it seem to track electability–in a general election the more experienced candidate wins slightly less than half the time:

So does any of this experience stuff matter? Probably not very much. Other stuff, like a candidate’s actual beliefs, strategy, and political skills, are probably much more important, and political experience doesn’t seem to track these things very well. Nevertheless, for your amusement, here’s the full history of presidential elections by WXP. Winners are bold, while the most experienced candidate is in italics.

1788:

George Washington: 2 Total XP, 1.5 Weighted XP

John Adams: 14 TXP, 10.5 WXP

1792:

George Washington: 6 TXP, 9.5 WXP

George Clinton: 5 TXP, 5 WXP

1796:

John Adams 22 TXP, 22.5 WXP

Thomas Jefferson: 12 TXP, 12.5 WXP

1800:

Thomas Jefferson: 16 TXP, 18.5 WXP

John Adams: 26 TXP, 30.5 WXP

1804:

Thomas Jefferson: 20 TXP, 26.5 WXP

Charles Pinckney: 2 TXP, 1.5 WXP

1808:

James Madison: 18 TXP, 19.5 WXP

Charles Pinckney: 2 TXP, 1.5 WXP

1812:

James Madison: 22 TXP, 27.5 WXP

DeWitt Clinton: 12 TXP, 4.5 WXP

1816:

James Monroe: 24 TXP, 25 WXP

Rufus King: 18 TXP, 16 WXP

1820:

James Monroe: 28 TXP, 34 WXP

No Opponent

1824:

John Quincy Adams: 29 TXP, 29.5 WXP.

Andrew Jackson: 2 TXP, 1.75 WXP

1828:

Andrew Jackson: 5 TXP, 4.75 WXP

John Quincy Adams: 33 TXP, 37.5 WXP

1832:

Andrew Jackson: 9 TXP, 12.75 WXP

Henry Clay: 19 TXP, 22.5 WXP

1836:

Martin Van Buren: 34 TXP, 26 WXP

William Henry Harrison: 22 TXP, 20.25 WXP

1840:

William Henry Harrison: 22 TXP, 20.25 WXP

Martin Van Buren: 38 TXP, 34 WXP

1844:

James Polk: 16 TXP, 14.75 WXP

Henry Clay: 29 TXP, 32.5 WXP

1848:

Zachary Taylor: 0 TXP, 0 WXP

Lewis Cass: 33 TXP, 33.75 WXP

1852:

Franklin Pierce: 9 TXP, 8 WXP

Winfield Scott: 0 TXP, 0 WXP

1856:

James Buchanan: 30 TXP, 27.5 WXP

John Fremont: 1 TXP, 1 WXP

1860:

Abraham Lincoln: 10 TXP, 5.5 WXP

John Breckinridge: 8 TXP, 9 WXP

Stephen Douglas: 24 TXP, 20 WXP

John Bell: 29 TXP, 25.75 WXP

1864:

Abraham Lincoln: 14 TXP, 13.5 WXP

George McClellan: 0 TXP, 0 WXP

1868:

Ulysses Grant: 0 TXP, 0 WXP

Horatio Seymour: 4 TXP, 4 WXP

1872:

Ulysses Grant: 4 TXP, 8 WXP

Horace Greeley: 1 TXP, 0.75 WXP

1876:

Rutherford Hayes: 7 TXP, 6.5 WXP

Samuel Tilden: 3 TXP, 2.5 WXP

1880:

James Garfield: 17 TXP, 12.75 WXP

Winfield Scott Hancock: 0 TXP, 0 WXP

1884:

Grover Cleveland: 5 TXP, 3 WXP

James Blaine: 22 TXP, 23 WXP

1888:

Benjamin Harrison: 6 TXP, 6 WXP

Grover Cleveland: 9 TXP, 11 WXP

1892:

Grover Cleveland: 9 TXP, 11 WXP

Benjamin Harrison: 10 TXP, 14 WXP

1896:

William McKinley: 17 TXP, 13.75 WXP

William Jennings Bryan: 4 TXP, 3 WXP

1900:

William McKinley: 21 TXP, 21.75 WXP

William Jennings Bryan: 4 TXP, 3 WXP

1904:

Theodore Roosevelt: 9 TXP, 11.25 WXP

Alton Parker: 6 TXP, 4.5 WXP

1908:

William Howard Taft: 18 TXP, 19.5 WXP

William Jennings Bryan: 4 TXP, 3 WXP

1912:

Woodrow Wilson: 2 TXP, 2 WXP

Theodore Roosevelt: 13 TXP, 19.25 WXP

William Howard Taft: 22 TXP, 27.5 WXP

1916:

Woodrow Wilson: 6 TXP, 10 WXP

Charles Hughes: 10 TXP, 10 WXP

1920:

Warren Harding: 8 TXP, 7 WXP

James Cox: 10 TXP, 9 WXP

1924:

Calvin Coolidge: 14 TXP, 12.25 WXP

John Davis: 11 TXP, 10.5 WXP

1928:

Herbert Hoover: 9 TXP, 8.5 WXP

Al Smith: 22 TXP, 14.5 WXP

1932:

Franklin Roosevelt: 13 TXP, 10.25 WXP

Herbert Hoover: 13 TXP, 16.5 WXP

1936:

Franklin Roosevelt: 17 TXP, 18.25 WXP

Alf Landon: 4 TXP, 4 WXP

1940:

Franklin Roosevelt: 21 TXP, 26.25 WXP

Wendell Willkie: 0 TXP, 0 WXP

1944:

Franklin Roosevelt: 25 TXP, 34.25 WXP

Thomas Dewey: 6 TXP, 3 WXP

1948:

Harry Truman: 24 TXP, 20 WXP

Thomas Dewey: 10 TXP, 7 WXP

1952:

Dwight Eisenhower: 2 TXP, 2 WXP

Adlai Stevenson: 4 TXP, 4 WXP

1956:

Dwight Eisenhower: 6 TXP, 10 WXP

Adlai Stevenson: 4 TXP, 4 WXP

1960:

John F. Kennedy: 14 TXP, 12.5 WXP

Richard Nixon: 14 TXP, 17 WXP

1964:

Lyndon Johnson: 28 TXP, 27.5 WXP

Barry Goldwater: 12 TXP, 12 WXP

1968:

Richard Nixon: 14 TXP, 17 WXP

Hubert Humphrey: 23 TXP, 23.5 WXP

George Wallace: 4 TXP, 4 WXP

1972:

Richard Nixon: 18 TXP, 25 WXP

George McGovern: 16 TXP, 14.5 WXP

1976:

Jimmy Carter: 8 TXP, 6 WXP

Gerald Ford: 30 TXP, 27.75 WXP

1980:

Ronald Reagan: 8 TXP, 8 WXP

Jimmy Carter: 12 TXP, 14 WXP

1984:

Ronald Reagan: 12 TXP, 16 WXP

Walter Mondale: 23 TXP, 22.25 WXP

1988:

George H.W. Bush: 12 TXP, 12 WXP

Michael Dukakis: 18 TXP, 14 WXP

1992:

Bill Clinton: 14 TXP, 13 WXP

George H.W. Bush: 16 TXP, 20 WXP

1996:

Bill Clinton: 18 TXP, 21 WXP

Bob Dole: 35 TXP, 33 WXP

2000:

George W. Bush*: 6 TXP, 6 WXP

Al Gore: 24 TXP, 26 WXP

2004:

George W. Bush: 10 TXP, 14 WXP

John Kerry: 22 TXP, 21 WXP

2008:

Barack Obama: 12 TXP, 8 WXP

John McCain: 26 TXP, 25 WXP

2012:

Barack Obama: 16 TXP, 16 WXP

Mitt Romney: 4 TXP, 4 WXP

2016:

Donald Trump: 0 TXP, 0 WXP

Hillary Clinton: 12 TXP, 14 WXP

I’ll close with the top 50 major party nominees by WXP:

  1. ’28 Adams–37.25
  2. ’44 Roosevelt–34.25
  3. ’40 Van Buren–34.0
  4. ’48 Cass–33.75
  5. ’44 Clay–32.5
  6. ’20 Monroe–33.0
  7. ’96 Dole–33.0
  8. ’00 Adams–30.5
  9. ’24 Adams–29.25
  10. ’76 Ford–27.75
  11. ’12 Madison–27.5
  12. ’56 Buchanan–27.5
  13. ’12 Taft–27.5
  14. ’64 LBJ–27.5
  15. ’04 Jefferson–26.5
  16. ’40 Roosevelt–26.25
  17. ’36 Van Buren–26.0
  18. ’00 Gore–26.0
  19. ’60 Bell–25.75
  20. ’16 Monroe–25.0
  21. ’72 Nixon–25.0
  22. ’08 McCain–25.0
  23. ’68 Humphrey–23.5
  24. ’84 Blaine–23.0
  25. ’96 Adams–22.5
  26. ’32 Clay–22.5
  27. ’84 Mondale–22.25
  28. ’00 McKinley–21.75
  29. ’96 Clinton–21.0
  30. ’04 Kerry–21.0
  31. ’36 Harrison–20.25
  32. ’40 Harrison–20.25
  33. ’60 Douglas–20.0
  34. ’48 Truman–20.0
  35. ’92 Bush–20.0
  36. ’04 Madison–19.5
  37. ’08 Taft–19.5
  38. ’12 Roosevelt–19.25
  39. ’00 Jefferson–18.5
  40. ’36 Roosevelt–18.25
  41. ’60 Nixon–17.0
  42. ’68 Nixon–17.0
  43. ’32 Hoover–16.5
  44. ’16 King–16
  45. ’84 Reagan–16
  46. ’12 Obama–16
  47. ’44 Polk–14.75
  48. ’28 Smith–14.5
  49. ’72 McGovern–14.5
  50. ’16 Clinton–14.0