Bill Maher and Ben Affleck are Both Wrong about Islam
by Benjamin Studebaker
In recent days, there’s been much discussion of an episode of Real Time with Bill Maher in which Maher (the host) and noted atheist Sam Harris got into a lively discussion with actor Ben Affleck over whether or not Islam is fundamentally less compatible with liberal values than Christianity, Judaism, or other religions. While I see many people taking sides, I found none of the arguments made particularly persuasive. I was instead struck by how thoroughly all three men seemed to miss the point.
If you haven’t seen the clip, here it is:
To summarize in brief, Maher claims that liberals need to stand up for liberal values, and that Islam is intrinsically hostile to these values. Affleck claims that most Muslims are not intrinsically hostile to liberal values and that therefore Islam as a whole is not intrinsically hostile to those values. Harris claims that Affleck underestimates popular support in the Muslim world for a variety of illiberal policies. Affleck claims that Maher and Harris are grossly overgeneralizing and are guilty of Islamophobia, which he likens to racism, while Maher and Harris claim to be subjecting Islam to the same fair criticism that non-religious ideas are generally open to in a liberal society.
Let’s break this down further–here are Maher’s two core claims:
- Proponents of secular moral theories must recognize that they conflict with religious moral theorists and stand up for their beliefs.
- Islam is intrinsically hostile to secular moral theory, more so than other religions.
The first claim does not get challenged by Affleck and is fundamentally true. Recently, I argued that secular values are not neutral values but that they are a substantive challenge to conservative religious values. This is true not merely in the conflicting practical ethical views that secular and religious moral theories generate, but in the way they are constructed. Theistic religious morality is “a priori”, which is to say that it relies on a presupposed set of basic metaphysical facts that must be taken on faith. There are three faith claims that all theistic religions require:
- There is a god (or gods).
- It is possible to know the will of god (or of the gods).
- The will of god (or the gods) is good.
If we disbelieve any one of these assumptions, theistic religious morality cannot be substantiated. If there is no god, he has no will to obey. If we cannot know the will of god, we cannot obey it even if he exists. If we do not know if god’s will is good, we cannot know that it is good to obey god even if he exists and his will is known. Faith in these claims is an intrinsic part of theistic religious morality.
By contrast, secular morality is constructed by human beings for the purpose of attaining a human conception of the good. It is often (though not always–see the Kantians) conducted in an “a posteriori” way, which is to say that secularists observe the worldly consequences of various moral principles and choose the moral principles that lead to the consequences they consider optimal. While secular conceptions of the good usually align with religious conceptions on practical matters to varying degrees, they will necessarily differ on both substance and theory. Just as many theistic religious preachers disagree on what the will of god is, many secular theorists disagree on how the good should be conceived and what means are appropriate for its attainment, but over the years various secularists have embraced a variety of ideas that straight up conflict with many traditional religious doctrines (e.g. permitting abortion/homosexuality/euthanasia, objecting to the consumption of animals, etc.) Additionally, the motivator for believing in the moral doctrine is fundamentally different–in theistic religious doctrine, one behaves morally ultimately because one will eventually be judged by the god (or gods) in question. In secular doctrine, one behaves morally because the social cooperation morality provides for raises living standards and happiness for people in this world, not the next.
Secularists cannot run from or ignore these distinctions. They must recognize that their beliefs are a substantive challenge to religious beliefs and that deeply religious people will often prefer to live in a society that operates in accordance with their beliefs rather than with secular ones. Religious people do not see secular morality as neutral or non-threatening and will continue to attempt to fight it. Secularists must either fight back or give ground.
Now, all that said, the second claim Maher makes is entirely different. Here, Maher does not merely point out that secularists have to defend secularism against those hostile to it in general, he claims that Islam is intrinsically more hostile than other religions and should receive more focus and attention from secularists than other religious doctrines.
Here the discussion quickly goes off the rails, with Affleck claiming that most Muslims are not particularly fanatical or hostile to liberal democracy while Harris claims that they are. As a point of fact, the results are somewhat mixed. According to a series of Pew polls, most Muslims support religious freedom, but are more muted in their support for democracy:
In most Muslim countries, there is little support for suicide bombing in defense of Islam, but in several the minority in support is sizable:
Large numbers of Muslims think that women must obey their husbands, and while many think women are entitled to choose whether or not to veil, this belief is far from universal:
When it comes to divorce and inheritance rights for women, it depends very much on which region you look at:
And large numbers of Muslims in many regions object to various behaviors that some secular moral theorists consider permissible or in some cases morally required:
What should be most striking to us about this data is the regional differences–if you’re a Muslim in Europe, you’re not as likely to hold views consistent with secular liberalism as your fellow Europeans, but you are much more likely to hold these views than you would be if you were a Muslim from the Middle East or Sub-Saharan Africa. Many European Muslims remain first or second generation immigrants to Europe, yet in the short time that they have been Europeans they have already begun to slide in a secularist direction. There are Muslims who are okay with euthanasia, abortion, sex outside of marriage, and many other behaviors not associated in the popular consciousness with Islam.
We could play this same game with evangelical Christianity–in a survey of evangelical preachers from around the world, Pew found that many of them espouse similar views to the Muslims surveyed. Evangelical preachers object to homosexuality just as strongly as European Muslims do and object to abortion even more strongly:
And more evangelical preachers believe that wives must obey their husbands than do European Muslims:
We also know that Christianity used to be far more conservative and hostile to secular liberal values than it is today. The rights of women in Medieval Europe were extraordinarily limited and support for abortion or gay rights unheard of. Christians used to be major proponents of using violence to defend the faith–the French Wars of Religion killed 2-4 million people. During the crusades, this support for religious violence was turned against Islam, as Christians waged aggressive campaigns to invade territory that had been held by Muslim people for several hundred years. By contrast, during the Middle Ages the Muslim states were noted for their support for the sciences. In sum, there was nothing intrinsic about Christianity that made it more secular or liberal than Islam historically and even today there are Christian denominations that are more hostile to liberalism and secularism than certain Muslim populations.
Maher, Harris, and Affleck are having a discussion about whether or not Islam is intrinsically illiberal, but we already know from the history that this is not the case, that there have been many times when Muslims have been more liberal, more secularist, or more pro-science than their Christian counterparts. So what’s really going on here? Why is it that there are Muslims today that are participating in radical religious movements while in Christian countries the radicals are in retreat?
I submit to you that it has nothing to do with Islamic or Christian doctrine whatsoever. If Muslims and Christians can believe entirely different things from what they used to believe or from what their coreligionists believe in different regions, this suggests that there are additional variables at play. What might these variables be?
Prosperity. Education. Security. Hope.
If you live in North America, Europe, or Australia, you live in a relatively prosperous society where education systems are comparatively strong and you and your family are relatively secure from food and water shortages, disease, and violence. You likely have hopes, dreams, and aspirations for your life and you probably believe you can achieve them in this world. If you live in the Middle East, Africa, or Asia, it is quite likely that you live constantly live in a state of fear. You might fear disease, you might fear famine, you might fear people from different tribes, ethnic groups, and religions, and you might fear your government. What’s more, you have little hope of seeing any positive change any time soon in this world. The forces arrayed against you are tremendously powerful and overwhelming, and you’re completely unfamiliar with what a good society looks like, much less how to build one. All you’ve got are these power-hungry fanatical religious leaders telling you that the answer is religious purity, and that not only will doing god’s work give you a purpose in this life, it will get you into paradise in the next. It doesn’t matter if you’re Christian or Muslim. If you live in that kind of society with that level of desperation and hopelessness, you are drastically more likely to fall prey to fanatical thinking.
The answer, at all times and in all places, has been to break the hold of fanaticism by lifting societies out of poverty, by spreading prosperity, education, security, and hope. The Muslim world needs today what the Christian world needed 1000 years ago–a renaissance. But when we westerners see fanaticism, we don’t recognize it as a symptom of these larger problems, we attribute it to Islam and view Islam itself as the disease. This kind of thinking alienates Muslims all over the world and drives more of them into the arms of the waiting fanatical preachers. They come to see us as the enemy, as the cause of their misery, and they attack us. And when they attack us, instead of giving them hope, we give them bombs. We destroy and kill them, impoverishing them further, driving them ever further from prosperity, education, security, and hope. And then we are shocked and surprised when this does absolutely nothing to discourage the fanatics, when new groups and new preachers take the place of those we destroyed. For every fanatic we kill knows in his heart that when he dies he dies a martyr and goes to heaven. No amount of violence will eliminate this kind of thinking.
So in this way, Maher and Harris are part of the system that encourages and feeds fanatical terrorist organizations. But Affleck’s criticism doesn’t really do the job. Even if 90% of all Muslims approved of suicide bombing, it would not in any way prove that Islam was intrinsically more fanatical or more hostile to liberalism or secularism than other religions, because we know historically that this was not always the case, that there have been and to some extent still are Christians who were more fanatical and Muslims who were much less so. A statistic like that would only serve to demonstrate the depth of despair in Muslim societies today, and the seriousness of the need for economic, social, and political development. To say that “most Muslims don’t actually think that” as Affleck does implicitly agrees with Maher and Harris’ premise that it is the religion that determines the behavior, when the reality is that economic, social, and political cohesion play a much bigger role in determining whether someone will have religious or secular liberal moral views and how fanatical those views might be.
First, I admit I scanned rather than read this piece… you begin by saying “to be brief” but weren’t (to my expectations), so give me a break. Your conclusion that socioeconomics have a greater influence on the behaviors of muslims than islam has some validity (yes there will be a “but”); I have always had the same inclination for the similar reasons. Are nonmuslim public opinions and us bombs responsible for muslim behavior? No. I say islam and other muslims are responsible for the behavior of muslims. …I’m not defending or endorsing any other religion either – they’re all equally poisonous.
Note – I say there is no such thing as a moderate muslim so I won’t differentiate, assume I mean extremists. I also say theres no “all, always, none or never” in anything – there are so many exceptions, exception IS the rule.
There are plenty of wealthy muslims – tens to hundreds of thousands live in or came from the West, and millions are in or are from wealthy oil rich Eastern states. Wealthy muslims agree with islamic ideology and practices just as poor ones do; wealth is not a factor in any religious belief, except mormonism (joke). There are likely just as many wealthy muslims as there are wealthy christians – and the same for atheists et al. Wealthy muslims may not jump at the chance to strap on a bomb _ thats the part I agree with – wealth and education likely does prevent self-martyrdom. There are poor uneducated hopeless christians in our cities & in africa, atheists in china, buddhists in southeast asia, and all other flavors mixed therein as well. They don’t have their own categories in pew polls (all polls are inherently flawed and unreliable), but they certainly aren’t know as fanatics or suicide bombers. They have despair, the numbers, the oppression, so why are they different than poor muslims. Why are second and third generation wealthy educated muslims still still ok with suicide bombs, chopping off heads and stoning women. ISIS is certainly wealthy now, and they aren’t filled with despair judging by their propaganda videos – why haven’t they packed up their bombs, kicked back and started watching Seinfeld reruns like the rest of us? There is a missing ingredient, another angle needed in this analysis.
Hatred
Is muslim hatred caused by our talking about them on tv and dropping bombs on them?
The quran has many of the answers, others come from history
While your “tolerant” muslims were promoting science and permitting non-islamic views – they were showing their “tolerance” by teaching their children the quran which says: “Hate nonbelievers but be wise – let them coexist but only if their existence profits islam” (aka infidel taxes); otherwise “allah wants you to kill these infidels, and he will reward you” or, caliphate lessons “Live in their countries if you have to; pretend to coexist until you get enough muslims into powerful positions and slowly take over” and “Lie to them whenever it serves islam”. The caliphate as you now probably know, is their desire to spread islam until it takes over he world. How peaceful and godlike is that statement? Muslims can refute this until they are blue – but the fact is clear: muslims are breeders of hatred – and its not because we drop bombs (sure its one present-day excuse for it) – their hatred dates back to the origin of islam – before bombs, before America. Sure, islam is not alone in the hate-mongering dept – but we’re talking about islam here.
Islam was the 7th century arab answer to the spread of christianity into their land – a force that they had to counteract with a grassroots campaign for fear it would push them off the face of the planet and end their way of life. Embedding hatred of their enemy into their society made sense. (I don’t blame them – I would have done the same thing. Heck – I hate them too!) Islam is far more about situational reactive politics than religion. Evidence? If you haven’t read the quran you should – its a hoot. It reads like a rant from a jilted teenage girl spewing hatred about a school bully and the system that wouldn’t defend her. If you can imagine how a mean popular girl creates enemies in high school, how her victims might dream of a utopian society where once-popular girls are pets for the oppressed… then you know what I’m referring to about the quran. It certainly does not read like transcendent wisdom from a supreme being (No, the bible certainly doesn’t either). The quran is an arabian farmers almanac of politics and superstition from 700AD. More than half its passages are attributed to the hateful treatment of nonbelievers and – violent treatment to boot. Hatred is rooted in the tenets of islam, not the artifacts of wars fought because of it. Its a chicken from an egg – the egg is islam.
The rest of the quran might be considered the basis for some kind of cult morality – except for the contradictions is contains regarding infidels. (e.g. don’t kill, unless you’re killing an infidel) Thats not morality, thats nonsesnse. Muslims have been pushing this brand of morality for so long they don’t recognize it’s defects. Society with unfair and unequal laws, oppressive government, lies, murder – its all fine compensation for a jilted islam as long as the victims it creates are the “enemy”. The muslims who see the defects claim to be moderates and say they aren’t like that, then turn around and send money to jihadists. You don’t get to say you belong to a religion when you don’t agree with its tenets – a phenomena equivalent to “like-ing” a facebook post without liking what it says just to get it’s side benefit. Islam is documented rules for hatred directed at a specific enemy (nonmuslims), and yes we aren’t helping by bombing them – but you cannot defend the fact muslims hated us well before the first bomb fell. Its right there in the history books – the part that christian revisionists and the US government didn’t manage to erase from our historical records.
Do the muslims have this hidden agenda, do they intentionally deceive non-believers? Do they want to take over the world? Yes they do, and rather than go on forever I will just say research it for yourself. Look for the “Muslim Brotherhood”, their documented plan for furthering the caliphate into america dated 1987. Look for ul fuqra, the jihad training camps in the us. Find info on and watch the “Third Jihad” videos. Read about the no-go zones in the UK, France, Germany, and soon the US – places where muslims have settled and are enforcing sharia law in democratic countries. Research their attempts to enforce sharia here in our courts. There is so much evidence available that when pieced together explains everything you’re seeing and hearing.
I think afflek is a perfect example of how easily we – members of an insulated, protected, prosperous and as a result naturally trusting society can get it wrong. We’re easily wrapped up in ourselves, happy-to-go well-to-do’ers each on top of our own little day-to-day short-game. We make easy targets – ready to be fooled and manipulated by others that aren’t playing games – it’s called well planned deceit. Its easier to see the world as we want it to be – as they want us to see it – seeing our personal worlds projected onto a screen instead of whats really there. Play back the recent news coverage of the incident in Oklahoma where an american that was converted into a muslim extremist in prison (a known recruiting ground in the us) got fired for trying to recruit others at his workplace then beheaded a woman while spewing quotes of islamic sharia law. One followup interview on the news was with the cleric from his mosque – who said “we never fully indoctrinated him as a muslim – we don’t share the full picture with everyone”. He admitted they intentionally present multiple faces of islam to the world. Intentional deceit, and a long term plan. Plant a few “good” muslims around us so they can whisper good things in our ears about what we’re seeing other “extremist” muslims do and we buy it – reaffirmed for us the world is good, islam is mostly good – and we’re all going to live happily ever after. Afflek either hasn’t really looked or has been duped by the pacifist muslim decoys planted purposefully in our society to lull us to sleep while others commit their evil deeds; like many others have been he was lulled into believing islam is about peace – some muslims included by design (exceptions are the rule).
To you I say judge islam based on the actions of the actors, not on the behavior of the few standing idle watching the atrocities their brethren commit on television.
You can say you believe muslims when they say they are peace loving people, right up until the point they break down your door and take your women to give away as gifts or to sell as slaves. Hopefully at least then you’ll get involved. I choose to call them out now – just sayin.
BTW, why question someone whose religion requires that they lie?
Just sayin..
I did summarize the video in brief–I offered a one paragraph summary of a video that would otherwise take 10 minutes to view. I then wrote a larger piece analyzing that video at my usual length. I’m sorry if you find that overlong. While I could make the same complaint with respect to your comment, I have instead done you the courtesy of reading it in full.
Because you have not read my piece in full, many of the complaints you level at me are answered elsewhere in the piece. You claim that affluent Muslims living in western countries are okay with suicide bombings, cutting off hands, and stoning people, but the polling data unequivocally refutes this. Pew polling reveals that most European Muslims support divorce and inheritance rights for women. Majorities in all Muslim countries oppose suicide bombing and support religious freedom.
Next, you say that the Koran is a hateful text. The trouble with attempting to make any kind of clear statement about what the Koran or Bible teaches is that depending on which Muslim or Christian you ask, the interpretations will be highly variant. The Bible preaches against usury, but today Christian bankers in the west are the most renowned userers in the world. The Bible says that homosexuals should be killed, but many self-described Christians now support gay marriage. These texts can be read very literally, in which case they will contradict themselves endlessly, or they can be read very loosely, so that they can be manipulated to say whatever one wants them to say. Christian doctrine ranges from liberation theology to prosperity preaching–there is no one interpretation of Christianity or Islam that is accepted by most self-described Christians or Muslims. Now, you claim that if Muslims or Christians don’t adhere to the version of the text you consider to be the correct one, they’re not really Muslims or Christians, but they don’t feel this way, they feel that they can be Muslim or Christian and hold a variety of alternative positions. The question isn’t whether you or I feel that one can be a Muslim and be sort of liberal, the question is whether or not there are Christians or Muslims who feel that way. Our interpretations of the texts are irrelevant to the question. Clearly it is possible for a person to consider himself to be a practicing Christian or Muslim and still hold broadly liberal values, so the question is what additional factors cause other Muslims and Christians to be more fanatical. Whether or not those beliefs are consistent or make sense to you or me is not relevant.
After that, you claim that Islam has a plan to infiltrate and destroy western society. This same group that you earlier accused of following an incompetently written moral text you now say is able to systematically plan an effective takeover of powerful western states and societies? This is a bit of a stretch–terrorism is a weapon of the weak and desperate, and the people who practice fanaticism are generally poor and uneducated. They have no master plan.
I never called Muslims a “peace loving people” (there is no such thing as a “peace loving people”)–I argued that they are on average less liberal and less secular than the average European or American, but that this has little to do with Islam. There are dramatic regional differences in the positions Muslims take. It follows that there are other variables at play aside from religion. If Muslims in Europe believe entirely different things from Muslims in sub-Saharan Africa, Islam is not the exclusive determinant of what Muslims believe to be good or just. To argue otherwise is reductive.
My reply is less a response to your blurb than it is to afflek’s (and others) position defending islam and ignoring or writing off the actual world events I see occurring before my eyes as aberrant terrorism. You are doing the same thing here as you did in your initial post – too much attention over analyzing words and somehow avoid adequately explaining the meaning of what is actually happening in the end. The analysis is what I chose to skim, I saw your source, your conclusions and it failed my acid test.
As to the content and points made –
Using Pew to draw conclusions about islam is a mistake. You seem to be basing everything on them. You can make data say what you want it to say. You can be a religious organization with an agenda and create a study that looks pretty darn objective – in reality the data is completely misleading and misrepresentative but hey – it was useful for their agenda. Who knows what went into their study? Do you? I’ll assume you went as deep as I did. I have read their results in the past. How many tribal areas did they go door to door in to accurately represent the militant and warring muslims in Iraq, Afgan., Saudi Arabia and Pakistan – oh wait – did they even poll in these muslim countries? How did they poll – phone? How can they make any assertion about muslims anyway – its a slippery slope. Furthermore, most Pew polls I come across are from 2012 – before ISIS; their questions are too granular, and all polls in general are weak indicators to begin with because people hate participating in them. I didn’t check your data references other that so say I saw your tables – but I immediately question yours and any statement that seems counterintuitive. You can make hours of argument about the reasons for muslim behavior and the meaning of the quran – in the end their (muslim) pattern of actions in aggregate speak far more to their values and intent than words ever will.
As to the meaning of the quran – I choose to discard “interpretations”. The quran is written with words that have translations – not everyone agrees on the translations, but you can read the opinions and decide for yourself. Most arguments on variants come down to the guy that just tells it like it is and people who don’t like what it says, so they argue. To me that is explanation enough. The quran does contradict itself, that doesn’t make the translation invalid – it just makes it look silly. It is silly, but they stand by it and teach it to their children – and the content of their lessons are whatever the heck they choose. They does teach hatred – I’ve heard plenty of muslims say that in interviews and in videos they publish as teaching tools and propaganda. Furthermore, it explains everything that is happening in the muslim world. They do lie – they do hate, they do resist social evolution and “western civilization”. They do use its contradictions to repurpose the text creating their own meanings to serve their agendas. They freely state their objectives come from the quran and their upbringing. It doesn’t have to be a cohesive clearly intentioned document for them to use its ideas and following to devise a plan to overthrow non-muslim governments from within – they did – read the Muslim Brotherhood documents and follow the actions of ul fuqra before you try to refute that point.
By the way – muslim women’s right to inheritance and divorce – you act like that’s some modern departure from original islamic practices that somehow indicates they’re becoming tolerant to western ideas. The right to inheritance dates back to the original quran and divorce to a muslim is not what you and I think it is – http://www-pub.naz.edu/~hon313/marriage&divorce.htm. Don’t make the mistake others do thinking words somehow trump actions – base your opinions on their tolerance to western women on how they treat western women – and all women for that matter, not on pew
BTW, you talk about softening extreme values, christians having a head start, splintering of the religion… – does the vatican condone soft modern views on divorce, homosexuals, contraception, married pastors etc…. No. Call a spade a spade – these new variants of existing religions may call themselves equals based on the same testaments, or quran or whatever – but they might as well have simply created their own holy cast of characters and texts because they are picking and choosing which words and ideas they want as the base for their new religious beliefs and values (just like the originals did – and every other “religion” has since the beginning of time). Its all creative writing – fictional writing, and these new ones are just adding their own more modern creative slant to it.
I could go on, but this is far too lengthy already.
Bottom line, draw your conclusions first based only on what you see -treat them like a theorem. Try to explain your conclusions with valid data. When it doesn’t work out, write about that. Explain why an arguably sane person in OK changes religion then chops off a woman’s head, and another one threatened the same. If everyone did that – maybe we’d get somewhere figuring this out & trying to improve this crazy world.
Man, if you want to learn about the methodology of the Pew survey, all you gotta do is click on this link, scroll to the bottom, and read about it:
http://www.pewforum.org/2013/04/30/the-worlds-muslims-religion-politics-society-overview/
The thing is, you won’t do this, because if something doesn’t totally agree with your pre-existing worldview, you’ll just find some excuse to write it off. That’s why you won’t read my piece or my responses to your comments, even though the comments you leave for me are extraordinarily long.
Here’s the thing–if you don’t trust any polls at all, you can’t prove anything about what most Muslims believe. In that case, it’s just your set of assumptions against anybody else’s. And why should we believe yours? You don’t trust polls, so you can’t martial any evidence about general Muslim opinion.You have no way of knowing if Muslims “teach hatred”, because when Pew or somebody else straight up asks Muslims if they believe suicide bombings can be justified and they say no, you make up excuses for disbelieving the poll. An anecdotal account here or there in favor of your view is no more convincing than an anecdotal account here or there in favor of anybody else’s.
You can discard “interpretations” of the Koran, but that doesn’t mean all Muslims do. What’s relevant is what Muslims believe, not what you think Muslims should believe based on your reading and your preferred translation of the text (and who knows how faithful that is to the original Arabic?).
If Islam is intrinsically a religion of hate, why is it that there are many secularist factions competing with the fanatical ones? If there’s some kind of pan-Islamic plot, why do so many of the fanatical factions fight with each other (ISIS is enemies with Al Qaeda and the al-Nusra Front) in addition to those Muslims who back secularists like Assad, Gaddafi, the Free Syrian Army, and so on down the line? Why do Muslims in affluent societies believe totally different things from Muslims in poor societies? Your explanation does not fit the facts, sir.
The Vatican used to support the burning of witches and the inquisition. It used to call for Crusades against Muslims. It used to sell indulgences. Today’s popes speak of the respect and goodwill the Holy See has for all Muslims. And in the meantime, many Christians have become Protestants, and many Catholics have deviated from strict church doctrine. If Christians can do this, why not Muslims? The evidence says that they do the same things under favorable conditions, so all I’m saying is “hey, let’s promote favorable conditions”.
btw Don’t be upset with me – I don’t mean to come across as all negative (not a troll). I actually agree with using poll data (w/caveat) any reliable data, and agree w/many of your inferences. Your article is well written and this controversial topic is worthy of a discussion. My perspective and evidence in this case makes me devils advocate, so I’m debating your conclusion vs mine (I say maher and harris are correct), and yes I’m skeptical of any poll (pew) so I ask to know how was it designed, conducted, etc.
Do you watch or read cnn? @Smerconish, a segment on cnn – he did a piece on the affleck/maher/harris interview and their assertions on the source of the conflict between muslims and non believers. His opinion (and mine) –
“since all muslims use the quran their acceptance of radical beliefs all lie along a continuum from full adherence to the 61%-hate-the-nonbelievers-quran/sharia to relaxed kinder muslims. Its certainly not black and white, and the median needs to be better understood. We don’t accept that the median lies towards moderate – there are too many peaceful muslims that agree muslims who abandon their faith should be stoned to death, etc.
He refers to a pew survey that does poll the militant muslim countries and regions I mentioned, the startling numbers tell a different story than the previous ones do. Btw Still a data skeptic, but here they define the respondent’s locations clearly
check it out its short http://www.cnn.com/video/data/2.0/video/bestoftv/2014/10/11/smerconish-commentary-10122014.cnn.html.
If you study the science and history of poll surveys you’d be more sympathetic on this little issue – it is an issue to be aware of.
Pew’s polls are good for politics because they predict an outcome then get to see how well they did after the election. This enables them to plan future polls differently, weighting certain scores (multipliers), varying their polling methods to better control the results. This is one acceptable way pew (el al) manipulates the studies, but they are not transparent when it comes to poll design. I’m not making this up. Other have pointed this out; pew admits less than 9% of people they poll actually respond. The willing poll respondents have a certain demographic profile too, and that skews the data. There are certain people that simply refuse to be polled, or embarrassed by person-person questions/their true answers or are unreachable by phone. Land lines are disappearing, cell directories don’t exist – these are issues that should be considered when using poll studies. Pew’s founders were highly religious, their board promises to maintain and promote the founder’s religious ideals. They are praised for their high standards, for producing consistent unbiased useful information, but they have also been criticized at least once for manipulating their data (to favor alaskan salmon over farm raised)
If you want to understand why I’m a poll skeptic – read my sources
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2012/05/survey_bias_how_can_we_trust_opinion_polls_when_so_few_people_respond_.html
http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/content/75/5/962.full?sid=f651b4dd-9118-4b2d-b444-5bd1dad71a69
http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/content/70/5/646
http://www.ma.utexas.edu/users/mks/statmistakes/biasedsampling.html
Finally, yes I agree that there are muslims rising up against ISIS and that separates their ideologies. It does not make the muslims that stand up to ISIS golden boys – many still stone unfaithful muslims and women and cut off hands. There is usually more to the story when you dig…
sorry for being long winded – it comes out fast sometimes
If polls are able to successfully predict election results, then those polls are representative–they are trustworthy insofar as their predictions hold true. While there is no predictive outcome that can be conclusively confirmed or disconfirmed when we survey people on other issues, we can use the same polling techniques we use in elections when conducting other surveys. It stands to reason that if our polling methodology for an election is predictive, a similar polling methodology on other issues will be roughly as trustworthy.
Furthermore, if the polling data were skewed, it could in theory be skewed in either direction. There is no obvious reason to believe it would go one way or the other.
But let’s say for the sake of argument that the Pew surveys were uniformly skewed such that they were tilted 5, 10, or 15 points further in the direction of moderate positions than they should have been. Even if this were the case, there would still be a large regional difference between Muslim opinion in Europe and Muslim opinion in sub-Saharan Africa or the Middle East. This would still imply my conclusion, which is that other sociological factors influence what a given Muslim population will believe.
A truly excellent and eye-opening essay. Thank you, this insight into the issue of religious extremism needs to be widely shared.
Thank you! Glad you liked it.
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Odd definition of a priori you use there, it’s really not that hard to understand https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NepDL1h1BS4
Way to sound like an asshole again.
A posteriori knowledge is knowledge one gains through experience, while a priori knowledge is knowledge that does not require experience. One has a priori knowledge either because it is definitionally true (e.g. all bachelors are unmarried is true by definition) or because it is intrinsic–many religious people believe that human beings know god from birth, not because they necessarily have any direct experience of god, but because this knowledge is intrinsic to being human. On their view, god consequently does not require evidence. By contrast, if belief in god were a posteriori, there would be an expectation that relevant experiences be provided to prove the claim.
[…] talked about this research in more detail back in October. The interesting observation is that Muslims living in European countries are sometimes more […]