The Incredible Statistical Difference between Democrats and Republicans

Lately I’ve been reading a book by Larry Bartels entitled Unequal Democracy: The Politics of the New Gilded Age. Bartels has conducted an incredible study that produced statistical outcomes I was not, to this point, aware of. Given the amount of time and energy I devote to politics, it stands to reason that the general public is not aware of them either, and it is absolutely imperative that, so long as this remains a democracy, every citizen be made aware of what Bartels has found, so I set out today to communicate these figures to whoever might be out there reading, in the hope that perhaps they will be shared more widely.

Continue reading “The Incredible Statistical Difference between Democrats and Republicans” →

Democratic Death Spirals

At this point, a very large number of people recognize that there are serious structural problems with the American political system, but most of these people still support American democracy in the abstract. Today I’d like to argue that this position is inconsistent, that it ignores the implications of recognizing the structural nature of the problems in the first place.

Continue reading “Democratic Death Spirals” →

Letting Unemployment Benefits Lapse is a Bad Idea

Congress has decided to let the extension in unemployment benefits it passed in the wake of the economic crisis in 2008 lapse. It’s estimated that 1.3 million Americas will lose their unemployment benefits completely, with 5 million seeing a reduction in benefit of some kind. This is a very bad idea. Here’s why.

Continue reading “Letting Unemployment Benefits Lapse is a Bad Idea” →

What’s Really Going on with Obamacare?

I’ve had a couple requests to do an examination of the Obamacare rollout. I haven’t commented to this point primarily because the returns are still early. There’s a lot of additional data that will come out in the coming months and a lot of unknowns–what will healthcare.gov look like a month from now, let alone by the end of March, the current sign-up deadline? Nevertheless, there are some useful things that can be said not merely about the rollout, but about the way in which the rollout is being covered in the popular press.

Continue reading “What’s Really Going on with Obamacare?” →

Resisting Stagnation and the New Dark Age

There’s a lot of talk lately by Summers, Krugman, and others that we may be in a period of secular stagnation, in which the rate at which the economy grows in the wealthiest countries falls substantially and permanently. Observing this, some are quick to point to demography as the cause. If populations are not growing as swiftly as they once did, it would indeed make sense that growth rates would fall. Under this thinking, slower growth isn’t a problem, because per capita growth is theoretically still strong–the economy is growing slower in aggregate, but it’s growing at the same speed relative to the size of the population. The trouble is that on further investigation, the demographic explanation does not sufficiently account for what’s going on. Not only are growth rates slowing, but per capita growth rates are slowing, and have been slowing for a while, beginning far before the recent economic crisis. This throws Kurzweil’s theory of accelerating returns into doubt, and undermines the central precept underlying our capitalist society–that the labors of this generation today are meant to make the next generation’s lives go better. If stagnation is the way of the future, it’s a much more serious problem than we presently recognize, one that ultimately threatens not merely our dreams of better lives for ourselves, but the very stability of our civilization.

Continue reading “Resisting Stagnation and the New Dark Age” →